As each election cycle passes, it becomes clear that the prop bets posted at political sportsbook sites are just as accurate as any poll conducted. Today, we analyze the current odds for elections occurring this November and preview 2025 and beyond’s political landscape.
Who Will Be The Next President?
Before Biden exited the race, Trump held a commanding lead in the Presidential futures. Top DNC officials bought into the hype and launched a campaign to get Biden to suspend his reelection hopes.
The plot succeeded, and now that Kamala Harris is Trump’s opponent, the odds have flipped.
2024 Presidential Election Odds to Win
- Kamala Harris -120
- Donald Trump Sr. +100
Harris didn’t gain an edge overnight. It took a few days for the sportsbooks and online gamblers to adjust to this new reality of Trump vs. Harris. Both candidates were tied during last week’s DNC Convention, but Harris has built a small lead once again.
Biden held a similar lead in 2020 and managed to win, but at the end of August, there’s a lot of time left on the clock for either nominee to falter.
Congressional Balance Of Power
The Democratic Party holds a slim majority in the US Senate, while the Republicans have a sizable edge in the House. Election props imply that the DNC will gain ground on the GOP in the US House, but the lines are not conclusive as to whether it will become the majority party.
US House of Representatives Election Odds To Win Most Seats
- Democrats -165
- Republicans +135
The odds are much more certain for a shift of power in the US Senate, as the Republican Party is expected to win enough seats back to attain 51 votes – or 50 with J.D. Vance operating as the tie-breaking Senate President.
US Senate Control
- Republicans -275
- Democrats +215
Most betting lines that are focused on individual US Senate races are taking action on the margin of victory. This is due to the certainty of incumbent wins or the historic political leanings of a given region.
A couple of states feature races where both candidates are in a dead heat. The first is Ohio, where incumbent Sherrod Brown (D) is in a tight battle against Bernie Moreno (R).
Ohio Senate Betting Odds
- Sherrod Brown (D) -150
- Bernie Moreno (R) +120
A Brown win is crucial to retaining a DNC majority beyond January 2025, but Moreno is only trailing by 70 points in the odds. Brown’s moneyline implies victory, but according to this political prop bet, a Moreno win would not be considered a massive upset.
Another somewhat close race is occurring in Montana, where challenger Tim Sheehy (R) is well out in front of incumbent Jon Tester (D).
Montana Senate Betting Odds
- Tim Sheehy (R) -225
- Jon Tester (D) +185
Just two weeks ago, Tester was polling 5 points ahead of Sheehy, but the top USA sportsbooks now view the Republican candidate as a sure winner in MT.