Biden is ahead in the betting odds at political sportsbooks that offer lines for the 2020 Presidential election. This is not a revelation. This has been the case for several months, but for some reason, there’s a feeling in the air that President Trump has a solid chance of winning his reelection bid.
Democrats have traditionally held an advantage over the Republicans when it comes to registered voters in the United States, and in 2020, that is still very much the case.
One-third of registered voters in the USA are a member of the DNC compared to the GOP’s 29%.
Still, despite this historic advantage, Republicans win the Presidency often, indicating that voters either don’t always follow political party lines at the ballot box, or that GOP voters are more dedicated and show up at a higher volume than the DNC’s supporters.
A 2019 survey conducted by Pew Research revealed that the largest demographic amongst polled voters were the 34% that were registered as Independents.
No, we’re not suggesting running down to the nearest sportsbook offering political odds and laying some action in Libertarian candidate Jo Jorgenson to win the Presidential election, but the number of registered independent voters has the potential to sway the results in either direction.
The number of registered Independent voters only suggests that Democratic supporters are much less dedicated when it comes to getting out and voting.
In a good year, Independent candidates for President are responsible for roughly 3% of the total popular vote. That means that Independent registered voters are smart enough to vote for a D or an R 97% of the time instead of using it on a candidate that has no chance of winning.
So using the above math, we can also assume that a majority of the Independent voters believe in left-leaning political ideologies, yet they still don’t get off the couch and make their way to the ballot box when it matters – election day.
USA sportsbook site MyBookie has posted the following odds for tomorrow’s Presidential election.
2020 USA Presidential Election Winner
- Donald Trump +130
- Joe Biden -170
Although the above betting line may resemble odds on the NFL or any other major athletic competition, this money line bet merely represents each candidate’s chances of winning and bares no implication on the “final score.”
Biden’s -170 odds imply a 63% of winning, but in reality, the vote total will not reflect that large of a delta between himself and Trump. Even the most anti-Trump analysts – and there are plenty of them – aren’t predicting that Biden will win by a 23-point margin.
The odds simply mean that Biden’s chances of winning the election are at 63%, and that sportsbook sites will only award a portion of the amount risked for winning bets placed on “Sleepy Joe.”
Still, two of the closest elections in recent history feature victories by Republican’s George W. Bush and Donald J. Trump – just another indicator that more GOP voters show up and vote when compared to other political parties.
If that trend holds, political bettors would be wise to get out and take advantage of the cash payouts that these odds for Trump will provide.
Source: Pew Research